Housing, Economy and Tourism

ECONOMY, INTEREST RATES AND RENT

Four data points released in the first two weeks of August point to the same conclusion: pricing is now being done in real rather than nominal terms. July inflation came in below expectations, the policy rate remained unchanged for the seventh month, the rent increase cap exceeded the market increase for the first time, and housing prices are declining in real terms even when rental income is included.

INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES

According to TÜİK data released on August 3, 2026, July CPI rose 1.78% month-on-month and 31.75% year-on-year; the twelve-month average was 31.90%. The housing, water, electricity and gas category rose 40.32% annually, 8.6 percentage points above the overall average. The CBRT kept its policy rate unchanged at 37% on July 23; in its Inflation Report 2026-III dated August 13, it raised its year-end inflation forecast from 26% to 28%.

RENT: THE CAP HAS OVERTAKEN THE MARKET

Under Article 344 of the Turkish Code of Obligations, the rent increase cap for contracts renewed in August 2026 is 31.90%. By contrast, the CBRT New Tenant Rent Index rose 29.2% year-on-year in June 2026. In other words, the rent increase applied to an existing tenant’s contract is now faster than the price offered to a new tenant in the market — the opposite of the pattern seen in recent years.

INTEREST RATES–HOUSING LAG

According to TÜİK data released on August 13, 123,603 homes were sold in July, down 17%. Mortgaged sales rose 23.7% to 23,888; their share increased from 13.0% to 19.3% in one year. Financing costs remain high: 2.84–3.58% per month, equivalent to 40.0–52.5% on a compounded annual basis. The first visible impact of the January 2026 rate cut is appearing not in total transaction volume, but in the share of purchases financed through mortgages.

Rent increase cap: 31.90%; new-tenant rent increase: 29.2%. For the first time, the cap has remained above the market increase.

Real Return Comparison · Antalya Average (June–July 2026)